2021 Oscars Predictions, Some Enlightened and Some Reckless

Well, I did it. I didn't think I would, but tonight I finished off the last of this year's Best Picture nominees with the brilliant and devastating The Father, Florian Zeller's adaptation of his well-regarded play of the same name.

When I predicted the nominees a while back, I wrote a whole lot about how weird it was to celebrate cinema in a year where its very future was imperilled in just about every way it could have been. The future of theaters, the future of production, the future of the medium all became rife with unprecedented uncertainty. Old assumptions about where the industry is and where it was going were in essentially an instant thrown right out of the window.

In 2018, Roma became the first film that was primarily released on a streaming service to receive a nomination for Best Picture. One can scarcely believe that just two years ago, there was such immense hand-wringing about the prospect of Netflix potentially winning the big one. Streaming was contextualized as the common enemy of true lovers of film, a bastardization of the medium that would blur the line between the cinema and *gasp* television. Then last year, it received two nominations: The Irishman and Marriage Story. This year, Netflix received two more: Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (though it should be noted that the latter was a Paramount production which it pawned off to Netflix; still counts, though!). But more striking perhaps is the fact that of the other six films nominated, three received concurrent streaming releases. That's right: more than half of the movies nominated for the biggest prize in film were streaming movies. Streaming transformed, in an instant, from cinema's grim future into its present. It went, in an instant, from being cinema's death knell to its savior; after all, without streaming, scarcely a film would have been released this year.

Why am I saying all of this? Well, place yourself a year and a few months ago, back in the glorious days when Parasite shocked the world and Bong Joon-ho charmed us all into oblivion, back when the term "social distancing" would in my mind have been some bizarre reformulation of Gwyneth Paltrow's "conscious uncoupling." If you had asked me then how many streaming movies would have been nominated, I would have said maybe two at the very most. At the very most. And here we are. Which is to say, this world is pure chaos, and prediction in general is a foolhardy attempt to impose order upon that chaos, to exert a degree of control that one does not have.

But what am I but a hubristic fool, believing I know it all even while knowing that I know nothing? So behold: my 2021 Oscars predictions in their full glory, some enlightened, some reckless, all of them to be taken with a grain – nay, an ocean's worth – of salt.

[Update: The winners have been marked with a star.]

Best Picture

Will Win: Nomadland*

Could Win: Minari

Should Win: Nomadland*

Aside from one of the categories below, this is the easiest prediction. Nomadland has swept all of the relevant precursors, including the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Producers Guild, and Critics Choice awards for top prize. Though there has been some (ridiculous and utterly off-base) backlash about the depiction of Amazon in the film, that has done little to dampen the widespread ardor for Chloé Zhao's breathtaking depiction of the humanistic effects of the vagaries of capitalism. It is a marvel, and I really do regret that I did not get to see it in theaters; the experience overwhelmed me even on the small screen on which I saw it, and I can only imagine the theatrical experience would have amplified my adoration.

This is not to say that there is no chance of an upset. Anyone who claims certainty in this category a mere year after that Parasite win – and a mere four after that Moonlight win – is, for lack of a better word, an idiot. If I can help it, I try not be an idiot. There are three films in the bunch that are candidates for an upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, and Minari. Of the three, the only one that has won something resembling a major top prize is Trial, which took home the SAG Ensemble award (for which, it must be added, Nomadland was not nominated). Historically that category has not been particularly predictive, so I don't put much stock in it, and I don't think Trial has a lot of passion behind it. Too many people are not quite in the mood for the moralizing didacticism and forthrightly, suffocatingly political tones of Aaron Sorkin this year, and in addition, the film is atrociously directed, horrendously edited, and rife with inconsistency in its performances (Eddie Redmayne as Tom Hayden is a travesty). Promising Young Woman has gotten some traction for its topicality, and is certainly better put together than Trial, but is nonetheless tonally uneven and has polarized many with its ending. (The far superior The Assistant is so much better at tackling the issues that Promising Young Woman does.) So the closest thing to a real upset contender is Minari, a film which I have yet to hear a bad word about. It is a simultaneously realistic and hopeful story of the American experience, and struggles that are part and parcel of pursuing the American dream. It has an adorable kid, an adorable grandma, and Steven freaking Yeun in it. Nonetheless, Best Picture is Nomadland's to lose.

As an aside, my ranking of this year's Best Picture nominees is Nomadland, Minari, The Father, Mank, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman, and The Trial of the Chicago 7, in that order. In spite of everything, this was a strong year. From my perspective, all but the last two were legitimately excellent pieces of cinema. Only 2017 (Get Out! Lady Bird! Call Me by Your Name! Phantom Thread! Dunkirk!) and last year (Parasite! Once Upon a Time in Hollywood! The Irishman! Little Women!) were better of the slates in the last decade.

Best Director

Will Win: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)*

Could Win: Nope, no one else. It's hers.

Should Win: Chloé Zhao*. Sorry David Fincher, I love you, but not this time.

Remember a second ago, when I said that Best Picture was the easiest prediction except for one category? Yeah, this is it. There are many reasons Nomadland has dominated this awards season, but the absolute number one reason is Chloé Zhao's incredible work behind the camera. There is an assuredness to the construction of quite literally every shot in that film. Nothing is careless or out of place. Above all, the power of her direction is what gives rise to the evident and abundant empathy that permeates the entire film, an empathy that will burrow itself into even the most indifferent of viewers. The film's beauty is a direct result of the knowledge and meticulousness of Zhao's craft. A well-deserved win is just about as close to certain as one can get for this year's ceremony. No dark horses here.

Best Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)*

Could Win: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) OR Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Should Win: Frances McDormand*

Remember a second ago, when I predicted Best Director with near complete certainty? Well, throw that out the window, because we have arrived at the biggest question mark of the evening. Best Actress is a minefield.

My take is that it is a three-way toss-up at this point between Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan. Andra Day was a revelation as Billie Holiday in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, but the film was a wreck in just about every other conceivable way. Her win at the Golden Globes is not predictive of much; the HFPA is, as anyone who has followed the recent news will know, an exceptionally corrupt and shadowy body that just 90-odd members strong, whereas the other guilds (where the aforementioned three contenders have all won) are much larger and historically more predictive. Vanessa Kirby was outstanding in Pieces of a Woman, but that film fell apart in its later phases.

But between the remaining three, it's anyone's best guess. The early favorite was Mulligan, but she has only taken the Critics Choice award, while McDormand took the BAFTA and Davis took the SAG (the most predictive of the three). Davis might be a better bet because of this, and Mulligan has an advantage in that she's never won before (a factor that surprisingly looms large in voters' minds), but I'm going with my heart on this one. While Zhao's direction gives Nomadland its power, McDormand is its soul. Mulligan's and Davis' performances are exceptional; McDormand's is less a performance that simply being. Surrounded by non-actors who are just living their normal lives, she blends in seamlessly. She does not construct the character of Fern; she becomes her, living her life, just another nomad among many.

Best Actor

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Could Win: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)*

Should Win: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)*

A few weeks ago I would have had almost the degree of confidence here that I do for Best Picture, but that changed drastically when Anthony Hopkins won the BAFTA. What was almost a sure thing became somewhat of a toss-up.

Chadwick Boseman has won every other precursor. His tragic passing, as sick as it is to say, does work in his favor a great deal; the award becomes not merely recognition for his work in Ma Rainey (which is undoubtedly exceptional), but for an exquisite and all too short career. I would be surprised if he loses. That being said, the BAFTA award gives me pause. There seems to be a great deal of momentum quietly building around Anthony Hopkins. There was rhetoric coming up on Twitter and elsewhere that this was among the greatest performances of his entire career, if not at the very top. I could not make my own judgment until a few hours ago, when I finished The Father, but I can attest: that was the best he has ever acted, surpassing even "fava beans and a nice chianti." It is a performance that in the wrong hands could have been theatrical and histrionic, but in his is devastatingly, hauntingly real. Divorced from the larger narratives, this would be my choice.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)*

Could Win: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

Should Win: Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

In another world, this could have been the year of David Fincher and Mank. He is perhaps my very favorite director, and Mank, while undeniably flawed, is nonetheless spectacularly crafted and a more carefully constructed film than people seem to be giving it credit for. It checks all of the usual boxes for Oscars success: old Hollywood story, a director who has not gotten his due from the Academy, and some of the best craftspeople in the business involved. But it seems that there is no passion around the movie, with many of the anonymous Oscars voters in the trades explaining that they felt it was soulless. Despite its ten nominations, it looks like the only awards it has a decent shot of taking home are in the crafts – which is a real shame, because I really do feel that Amanda Seyfried's take on Marion Davies is an exquisite piece of acting. She embodies Davies without devolving into pure imitation – always a tricky balancing act when playing a well-known individual – and truly places herself in the performance.

Alas, the general lack of enthusiasm about Mank has taken the wind out of any legitimate hopes for Seyfried, and has left the race with two serious contenders. There is little doubt in my mind that Yuh-jung Youn deserves the award for her hilarious, crass, and fundamentally adoring grandmother in Minari. Her entrance into the film is precisely the moment when it goes from charming to enchanting, and that is no mere spurious correlation. The Academy, however, is notorious for its penchant for giving awards to performers for whom they feel is long overdue for one, and nobody fits that criteria more than Glenn Close, who has gone seven nominations without a win. If there is any justice in this universe, her eighth nomination for the truly horrendous Hillbilly Elegy (in my view, the single worst film released last year) will not change matters for Close. She deserves an award, but please god give it to her for literally anything else. I'm not ruling out the possibility that she takes it, but I am putting every ounce of willpower I have to push the universe away from that chaos.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)*

Could Win: Sacha Bar... nah, it's Kaluuya's.

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya!*

Okay, come to think, of it, there is another award I'm as confident about as Best Director, and it's this one. Kaluuya's Fred Hampton is the lifeforce of Judas and the Black Messiah, a film I admired and enjoyed, the former perhaps a touch more than the latter. There is an energizing duality to his performance: the loving family man and the radical, acerbic activist, not merely two separate personas but rather two elements of the same one. His next to certain win makes me so, so happy, and partially redresses the fact that he lost in 2017 to the blubbery prosthetics of Gary Oldman's Winston Churchill.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Father*

Could Win: Nomadland

Should Win: The Father*

Given my near certainty about Nomadland's chances in many of the other categories, logic would have it that I put my money on it here as well. It is rare, after all, that the presumptive Best Picture winner does not also win the screenplay award for which it is nominated (though the last few years have occasionally bucked that trend). Yet I can't shake the fact that Nomadland is not really a verbal experience, but a visual one. Its narrative does not have much direction, because it really does not need to. Most of the time, it is the imagery that is really driving the narrative, rather than the other way around as one would expect of a Best Screenplay winner. On the other hand, The Father's script is a work of ingenuity in addition to being one of deep power and poignance. It is both clever in the way it depicts the unraveling of an old mind from the inside and empathetic in how it tackles such a heavy and hard-hitting subject. I am not sure how much love The Father has in the Academy, but if there is any award outside of Best Actor that I would give it a shot for, this is it.

It must be noted that Borat Subsequent Moviefilm did somehow win the Writers Guild equivalent of this award, but I cannot fathom why. Most of that film was surely unscripted; that's its whole thing! The WGAs are historically quite predictive, however, so do not rule out Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (yes, that is the rest of its name).

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Promising Young Woman*

Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Should Win: Minari

Usually this category is one where I am most satisfied with where the Academy goes, both regarding nominations (Knives Out last year!) and wins (Get Out in 2017!). This year, it seems like a race between my two least favorite of the major contenders, those being Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Emerald Fennell's script is audacious and mesmerizing, and the film's ending, while polarizing, is certainly the kind of bold and daring decision that in my opinion does not get made enough in Hollywood. I would not be unhappy per se if her audacity is rewarded, an outcome that all signs seem to point towards (it has swept all of the precursors). Nonetheless, it's hard to deny the Aaron Sorkin of it all. The Academy are established fans of his work, and maybe some critical mass of voters fell for his saccharine sentimentality and penchant for reformulating history in his own image. There's a chance they go in that direction, though not a big one.

Would love to see Minari recognized here, though. The script is simultaneously playful and moving, in addition to being deeply personal for Lee Isaac Chung. I doubt it has much of a shot. Perversely, I think the visual beauty of the film and Chung's sparkling direction may distract voters from what I think is a brilliant piece of writing.

Having gone through these eight major awards, here are the remainder of my predictions. Disclaimer: I have historically been incredibly bad at guessing the crafts and short film categories, and I very much doubt that is about to change.

Best Animated Feature: Soul*

Best International Feature: Another Round*

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher*

Best Documentary Short: Colette*

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You*

Best Live-Action Short: Two Distant Strangers*

Best Sound: Sound of Metal*

Best Production Design: Mank*

Best Cinematography: Nomadland (Winner: Mank)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*

Best Costume Design: Emma (Winner: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Best Editing: Sound of Metal*

Best Visual Effects: Tenet*

Best Music (Original Score): Soul*

Best Music (Original Song): "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami... (Winner: "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah)