2021 Oscar Nominee Predictions

Has there ever been as bizarre, as momentous, as devastating a year in film as 2020?

The theatrical experience, for a long time on its last legs, has been brought right to its knees, crippled (along with the rest of the world) by a virus ten nanometers wide, a millionth of a centimeter. On the domestic market, the highest grossing film of the year was the January release Bad Boys for Life. It is the first time that a year's highest grossing film was released in January since Box Office Mojo records begin in 1977. The total box office gross of 2020 was $2.09 billion – the lowest in raw terms since 1981, and certainly the lowest on record after adjusting for inflation. Of that $2.09 billion, nearly $1.8 billion was earned in the first three months of the year.

In the early spring stages of the crisis, film studios debuted a new model of "premium video on demand," where the theatrical release was replaced by the opportunity to rent the film at home, on the same day, for a price akin to a movie ticket. One cannot help but feel that the studios were leveraging this crisis to do something that they were gunning for anyway. Major releases were pushed to the fall, from Top Gun: Maverick to The French Dispatch to Dune to No Time to Die.

Some filmmakers fought valiantly to maintain the integrity of the theatrical experience. Christopher Nolan thought he could save the industry with his suave spy thriller Tenet. Unfortunately, willpower alone does not solve a health crisis. Nolan's characters saved the past from the future (or something), but he could not save us from the present. Its failure to generate the kind of revenues it hoped for induced studios to shunt all of their major releases into the next year. Most of the year's releases were thus either released on streaming alone, or simultaneously on streaming and in theaters (wherever possible).

With all of this upheaval, the Academy Awards, that yearly opportunity for Hollywood to delight in itself, is left in an odd place. How does one celebrate cinema from a year in which its future was left in a state of uncertainty, when the very nature of the industry was shifting beneath our feet?

The Academy itself was hardly spared from the effects of the pandemic, being forced to delay the ceremony by a couple of months and changing its eligibility rules to allow for films without a theatrical release (which is to say, most of them) to be considered. As a result, for the first time but almost certainly not the last, the majority of strong awards contenders are from streaming services rather than major studios.

Moreover, the usual narrative-building of awards season was removed from the equation, as film festivals were by and large cancelled (or turned into entirely virtual, less buzzy affairs) and campaigning transitioned from glamourous ballrooms to staid Zoom calls. In some sense, this was invigorating; unlike in past years, when certain awards were effectively settled by September, no one had the faintest clue what would even be released in time for the ceremony. Yet at the same time, this left awards season prognosticators (certainly dilettantes like myself, but even those who do it for a living) in a state of complete confusion.

As the awards season has gone on, and more guilds have come out with their nominations, a clearer slate of contenders has emerged in the major categories. Nevertheless, I cannot recall a recent Oscars buildup where there was less consensus across these categories – when the capacity for the Academy to surprise us has been greater. This makes my task of predicting the nominations, to be released this Monday, even more of a fool's errand than usual. Nonetheless, my insatiable masochism necessitates that I try my hand. Here are my predictions for nominees in the major categories, where I have in general placed them in the order of most to least likely. I have also included a few outside contenders that could sneak in, and a few personal picks with little to no shot.

[Update: The true nominees have been indicated with stars. I didn't do too badly!]

Best Picture

Nomadland*

Mank*

Minari*

The Trial of the Chicago 7*

One Night in Miami

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Promising Young Woman*

Judas and the Black Messiah*

Sound of Metal*

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Outside Contenders: The Father*, Soul, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods

Personal Picks: Palm Springs, First Cow, The Assistant

Best Director

Chloé Zhao, Nomadland*

David Fincher, Mank*

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari*

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman*

Outside Contenders: Regina King, One Night in Miami; Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods; Florian Zeller, The Father; Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Personal Picks: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow; Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

Best Actress

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman*

Frances McDormand, Nomadland*

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman*

Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday*

Outside Contenders: Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit; Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot; Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

Personal Pick: Julia Garner, The Assistant; Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*

Gary Oldman, Mank*

Anthony Hopkins, The Father*

Steven Yeun, Minari*

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal*

Outside Contenders: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods; Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian; Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami; Tom Hanks, News of the World

Personal Picks: Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah; Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Best Supporting Actress

Olivia Colman, The Father*

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari*

Amanda Seyfried, Mank*

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy*

Outside Contenders: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Helena Zengel, News of the World; Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

Personal Picks: Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah; Marisa Tomei, The King of Staten Island

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah*

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7*

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami*

Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal*

Outside Contenders: Alan Kim, Minari; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods; Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Jared Leto, The Little Things

Personal Picks: Yahya Abdul Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Orion Lee, First Cow

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nomadland*

One Night in Miami*

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

The Father*

News of the World

Outside Contenders: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*, The White Tiger*, The Mauritanian

Personal Pick: First Cow

Best Original Screenplay

The Trial of the Chicago 7*

Minari*

Promising Young Woman*

Mank

Judas and the Black Messiah*

Outside Contenders: Sound of Metal*, Soul, Da 5 Bloods

Personal Pick: Palm Springs