2022 Oscar Preview and Predictions: Let's Watch the World Burn

I will preface my predictions this year with the usual disclaimer: take everything I say with a massive grain of salt. Every year I predict the Academy Awards by combining analytical clarity of thought with the pathetic (albeit unavoidable) biases wrought by my emotions. The effect of those biases is more pronounced when I see a larger share of the nominated films – and this year, I have seen all of them. Yes, all of them. Why? The first order reason is of course that I am a hopeless, psychotic film obsessive with too much spare time for my own good. The second order reason (and perhaps the one more relevant to my dear readers) is that for only the second time in Academy Awards history, the majority of the films nominated for major awards were available to stream prior to the ceremony. All of the films could be seen from the comfort of one's own home, the majority from a streaming service to which one likely already subscribed (at least in the US).

Such is the irony, then, that the interest in and popularity of the nominated films this year are near an all-time low, second perhaps only to the nadir of last year's COVID-19 afflicted show. I am friends with a fairly well-informed bunch of people; the average amount of nominated films they have seen is about two. Zero, or maybe one is the mode response. The only reason most of them know about any of the films, or that the ceremony is tonight, is because of my insistent (presumably annoying) commentary on the state of the awards race, not because of any self-generated individual interest.

The Academy itself is well aware of this awareness deficit, which is why they have resorted to some truly inane tactics to gin up viewership. The most egregious is its decision to cut eight awards – including Best Editing, Best Score, Best Sound, and Best Production Design – from the main telecast, instead presenting them in the theater off-air while attendees get seated in the Dolby. In addition, they cut the presentation of lifetime achievement and humanitarian awards, which were instead presented on Friday at a closed ceremony, where the only footage of delightful moments such as Denzel Washington presenting Samuel L. Jackson with an Oscar was from low-resolution cell phone cameras.

What will they fill the time they've freed with these excisions? Among other things, the presentation of the Oscars Fan Favorite, an asinine bit of pandering that allows "fans" to vote for their favorite film. The aim of this decision was to somehow get recognition for last year's most popular film, Spider-Man: No Way Home. Yet that looks increasingly unlikely. If social media chatter is to believed, it is instead the critically maligned, Camilla Cabello-starring Cinderella that looks set to nab the prize. This Fan Favorite idea takes the Popular Film award idea floated from a few years ago – an idea that was met with a fierce backlash and quickly (and rightly) shelved – and somehow makes it exponentially worse. You see, the whole point of the Oscars is that it is the film industry's own perspective on the very best of its production in the past year. If we wanted to know what the "people" think, we would watch the People's Choice Awards, or better yet just take a look at the box office tallies from last year.

The producers' decision making betrays a fundamental failure to understand this show's true target audience – or, perhaps more honestly, a feeling of shame about who cares about the Oscars. The people who will actually be watching are not the young comic-book movie fans who see maybe three films a year (depending on the number of Marvel and DC releases). They are the people who love the cinema as an artistic medium – who are invigorated by discussions of the specifics of the craft, and understand that editing, production design, sound and score are not sideshows to direction, writing, and acting, but are integral components of the process of film production. By catering to a phantom audience that will not tune in and alienating the ones who will, the Oscars is establishing all the precursors for a failure of epic proportions. My meta prediction for the show is thus that it will be, put concisely, a dumpster fire. Its rating will be awful (perhaps marginally higher than last year's lows, but only just), and the critical consensus tomorrow will be uniformly negative. I would love to be proven wrong, but in this prediction I am more certain than in any of the ones I provide below.

On that happy note, let's get into the categories! I provide commentary for the eight major awards, and then list my predictions for the other categories. Remember my disclaimer!

Best Picture

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA

Should Win: Licorice Pizza

My goodness, what a tossup this race has become. It seemed up until a few weeks ago that The Power of the Dog was certain to get Netflix that elusive Best Picture for which it has been tirelessly campaigning since 2018's Roma. Yet a spoiler has arrived in the form of CODA, which has scored crucial precursor wins of Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor's Guild awards and the top prize at the Producer's Guild of America awards. Neither of these are perfect predictors, but since 2010, five Best Picture winners took home Best Ensemble, while eight have taken home the PGA. The great irony is that the studio behind CODA is a little up-and-comer called Apple TV+. Imagine if Netflix's best ever chance at Best Picture is snatched by Apple of all companies. Apple! I still think that The Power of the Dog will grab the top prize, as the momentum for CODA may be coming perhaps a touch too late to swing the needle.

What should win is Paul Thomas Anderson's glorious evocation of the San Fernando Valley of his youth, Licorice Pizza. This is not the right forum to go into the criticisms of the film (the main two being that it is creepy and racist), but needless to say I do not think any of them hold much water so long as one spends anything more than a few seconds considering PTA's intentions. Those whose criticisms have been loudest largely seem to be confusing depiction with endorsement. If this perspective was widely accepted, cinema would be condemned to only getting ham-fisted films like Don't Look Up – a future I don't think any of us want.

Best Director

Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story? Nah, it's Campion

Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

As locked as locked can be, Campion has had both hands on Best Director for the entire awards season. The Best Picture uncertainty about The Power of the Dog that has recently emerged has not permeated the Best Director race at all. Her win at the Director's Guild of America awards a few weeks ago seems to have all but sealed matters (we shall ignore the mishap with her speech, where she said that Serena and Venus Williams did not have to face men like she did... oops!). She will be a deserving winner: The Power of the Dog is a masterclass in directorial control, exhibiting extreme, exacting precision in the manner in which it constructs and unwinds its narrative. Forgive the pun, but Campion is the power of Power; without her meticulousness, it is unlikely that the film would be nearly as captivating as it becomes.

Best Actress

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Win: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

An even bigger toss-up than Best Picture. I legitimately believe that any outcome is possible; each of the five nominees have a path to the award. Early in the race this seemed settled as Kristen Stewart's award for her Princess Diana imitation in Spencer, but a more polarizing than expected reception of the film and even her performance meant that her bubble seemed to pop before any of the precursor awards were given. The earlier awards seemed to give an edge to Nicole Kidman's Lucille Ball imitation in Being the Ricardos, an outcome that I would have found utterly confounding (neither her performance nor the film surrounded her deserve any plaudits). But the recent momentum has all been for Jessica Chastain's imitation of notorious evangelist Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

That is where I believe the Academy will go tonight. The reason is the same reason I used "imitation" instead of "performance" everywhere I could in the previous paragraph: their preference in the acting awards, especially in Best Actor and Actress, is to reward performances that do not construct new characters, but instead rehash historical figures who are known. Naturalistic, subtle performances that construct new characters – a task I believe to be much harder than imitating someone known – are given short shrift by the Academy. This is why I think Chastain will prevail over the actress who has been at the receiving end of a fair amount of buzz in the last weeks of the race: Penélope Cruz, who is nominated for her stunning work in Pedro Almodovar's Parallel Mothers (where her character is truly original, rather than an imitation). In addition to the aforementioned real-person bias, another factor working against her is the fact that Parallel Mothers is in Spanish. Deserving performances in other languages – Isabelle Huppert's work in Elle from 2016 comes to mind – often fails to get the recognition it deserves.

I would be happy if either Cruz or Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) win, though I think Colman's performance is a step above Cruz's. Both construct compelling central figures who struggle with motherhood, albeit in very different ways. But Olivia Colman is incredible in the manner in which she conveys her character Leda's internal contradictions, contradictions that she herself is able to recognize, though perhaps not grapple with. It is a quieter performance than what Colman usually gives, demonstrating a different side of her acting talents.

Best Actor

Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard

Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

This is cut-and-dried. Will Smith will take home Best Actor tonight. His campaign has not taken a false step, notching him every relevant precursor award. There is a tiny, tiny chance that Benedict Cumberbatch scores a big upset for The Power of the Dog, but nothing indicates that this is a serious possibility. A shame: I think his performance is a difficult and incredible one, while Will Smith's is another imitation – a good one, but an imitation nonetheless. If Cumberbatch does pull this off, that would indicate a huge degree of base support for The Power of the Dog, and would make a loss in Best Picture a near impossibility.

A special shout-out to my preferred nominee, Denzel Washington, whose Macbeth take as a crabby, out-of-his-depth, hapless old man is in my opinion a stroke of total genius. I cannot remember Denzel being anything other than utterly compelling on screen, this performance being merely the latest example. It's no slight on other nominees to say that he should win this award; he is in my opinion the best actor currently working, and it isn't particularly close. He is simply better than just about everybody else around in just about everything he does, and The Tragedy of Macbeth is no exception.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Should Win: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Another lock, along with Best Director and Best Actor. DeBose's performance has received universal acclaim, and she has deserved every plaudit and precursor award she has notched. It takes a known character (one, indeed, that Rita Moreno won an Oscar for portraying in the original West Side Story), and infuses it with her own character and flair. I would be more than fine with her winning simply on the basis of her wondrous rendition of "America", one of my absolute favorite movie moments from last year. There is perhaps a really, really outside chance that Aunjanue Ellis capitalizes on some late-breaking momentum for King Richard by upsetting DeBose, but that is even less likely than the Cumberbatch upset in Best Actor.

My favored performance among the nominees is close between DeBose and Kirsten Dunst, who gives perhaps the showiest performance in The Power of the Dog, but in a manner that works well in the context of the film, contrasting the other performers and working symbiotically with them to elevate their subtlety. I list Dunst above, but more to feature her than actually as a consequence of my preference for her performance. Either her or DeBose would be worthy winners.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Should Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Like Best Picture, this is another race where the momentum has swung firmly towards CODA, with Troy Kotsur's performance as the deaf father of a hearing daughter snatching the SAG and BAFTA from Kodi Smit-McPhee's grasp. Unlike Best Picture, I think the needle will actually swing to CODA here. Kotsur has been a charmer on the awards circuit, and his performance is indeed a gem. He is both the comedic and emotional core of CODA, providing moments both humorous and heartfelt (sometimes both at once). Both he and Smit-McPhee are fantastic, but he drives CODA to the degree that I do not believe the film would work in his absence. Though Power would have likely been less captivating in the absence of Smit-McPhee, it still may have worked on the back of Campion's direction and the performances of Cumberbatch and Dunst.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: CODA

Could Win: The Lost Daughter

Should Win: Dune

This is another category where I think the CODA momentum will play out. The Power of the Dog was never that strong a player here; the narrative is more of a canvas for Jane Campion's directorial genius along with the various skillful performances to flourish. In fact, I don't even consider The Power of the Dog a serious contender for this award. Instead, I think this will either go to CODA or to The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal's ingenious adaptation of an Elena Ferrante novel, with the aforementioned CODA momentum nabbing it the award.

Pour one out, though, for Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, and Eric Roth, whose screenplay for Dune is as good a piece of adaptation as I can recently recall. Many have tried and failed where these three have succeeded at making Frank Herbert's novel digestible for the big screen. They achieve the perfect marriage of the novel's immense scope and scale with its more interior elements. It is a tricky balance that they strike with aplomb, and deserves (but will not receive) the award.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Licorice Pizza

Could Win: Belfast

Should Win: Licorice Pizza or The Worst Person in the World

Will the controversy and criticism I mentioned for Licorice Pizza imperil Paul Thomas Anderson's chance at his first Oscar? I hope not, but it's a definite possibility. The script that seems most likely to usurp it is that of Belfast, a once-upon-a-time Best Picture contender which has since seemingly lost the momentum it generated after grabbing the People's Choice award at the Toronto International Film Festival. This would be an awful outcome. Belfast is a tacky piece of sentimentality without any degree of depth about its subject matter, while PTA's work on Licorice Pizza is sentimental without the tackiness, evincing a touch more subtlety in the way it unfolds. So here's hoping that Licorice Pizza defies its detractors and nabs the one award it seems able to.

If it can't be Licorice Pizza, make it The Worst Person in the World, Joachim Trier's absolutely magnificent commentary on the millennial ethos. It captures the essence of what it is like to be a modern twentysomething in all its glory and contradictions. It shows beautifully the perils of being someone who does not know exactly what their ambitions are in a world that demands clarity of thought about one's future. The more I think about it, the more I believe that it may even be better than Licorice Pizza – only rewatches will tell (and there will be many of both, which were two of my favorite films from last year).

The Other Categories

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best Foreign Language Film: Drive My Car

Best Cinematography: Dune

Best Costume Design: Cruella

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball

Best Editing: Dune

Best Makeup/Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Music (Original Score): Dune

Best Music (Original Song): "No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Short Film (Animated): Robin Robin

Best Short Film (Live Action): The Long Goodbye

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune